The Impact of Population Education and Economic Indicators on Crimes: A Longitudinal Study

Authors

  • Nafees Wahab B.S. Scholar Department of Statistics University of Malakand
  • Aqib Javed khan B.S. Scholar Department of Statistics University of Malakand
  • Dr. Muhammad Ilyas* Lecturer Department of Statistics, University of Malakand
  • Muhammad Ismail Lecturer Department of Statistics, University of Malakand

Abstract

This study analyzes the impact of population, education, and economic indicators on crime rates in Pakistan from 1971 to 2021. Using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach and Error Correction Model (ECM), the findings reveal that GDP per capita (p = 0.5164) and foreign direct investment (FDI) (p = 0.1199) have no significant effect on crime rates. However, population size (p = 0.0000) shows a positive and significant relationship with crime, while literacy rate (p = 0.0122) and government expenditure on education (p = 0.0001) have significant negative effects. These results suggest that improving education and managing population growth are key to reducing crime. The study recommends greater investment in education, equitable resource distribution, and integrated policies involving education, law enforcement, and social development to effectively address crime in Pakistan.

Keywords: Crime Rate, Population Growth, Education, Economic Indicators, ARDL Model

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Published

2025-10-31

How to Cite

Nafees Wahab, Aqib Javed khan, Dr. Muhammad Ilyas*, & Muhammad Ismail. (2025). The Impact of Population Education and Economic Indicators on Crimes: A Longitudinal Study. `, 4(02), 1127–1149. Retrieved from https://www.assajournal.com/index.php/36/article/view/1045

Issue

Vol. 4 No. 02 (2025): Advance Social Science Archive Journal

Section

Articles