Can Track 2 Deliver? Informal Engagement and Pakistan’s Search for Stability with Taliban-Ruled Afghanistan

Abstract

The present return of the Taliban to power after U.S. forces evacuated Afghanistan was seen as an opportunity by Pakistan to stabilise relations through shared religious, cultural and historic affinities. These expectations have remained unmet, and there are persistent border tensions and cross-border militancy. Pakistan’s primary security concern is centred on continued cross-border militant activities originating from Afghan soil. There is a structural mismatch between Pakistan’s conventional diplomatic approach and the Taliban’s ideologically driven and informal regime, which has proved to have limited effectiveness in state-to-state formal diplomacy. Therefore, there is room for track 2 diplomacy through religious scholars, tribal leaders, business communities and academics. By assessing these supplementary diplomatic means in the post-2021 era, this paper seeks to evaluate the importance of such engagements in bringing about behavioural restraint and improved bilateral relations. The study finds that in a constrained policy environment, although Track 2 diplomacy alone cannot produce decisive security outcomes, but it plays a facilitative and incremental role in crisis management when it is integrated into a broader policy framework. To a certain extent, this approach can serve as a pragmatic tool for managing Pakistan’s security challenge related to Afghanistan.

Keywords: Pakistan–Afghanistan relations; Track 2 diplomacy; informal engagement; cross-border militancy; conflict management; regional security.