Spatio Temporal Dynamics of Land Use Land Cover Change and Urban Expansion in Multan Tehsil, Pakistan (2000-2020)

Abstract

Rapid urbanization has emerged as a major driver of land use and land cover (LULC) transformation in medium-sized cities of developing countries. This study analyzes the spatiotemporal dynamics of LULC change and urban expansion in Multan Tehsil, Pakistan, over a twenty-year period (2000-2020) using Remote Sensing (RS) and Geographic Information Systems (GIS). Multi-temporal Landsat imagery for the years 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015 and 2020 was classified using a supervised Maximum Likelihood Classification approach to identify five major LULC classes: built-up area, mango orchards, vegetation cover, barren land and water bodies. Post classification change detection and spatial analysis techniques were employed to quantify land-use transitions, growth rates and expansion patterns.

The results reveal a substantial increase in built-up area from 59.73 km² in 2000 to 207.10 km² in 2020, representing a 246% growth over two decades. In contrast, mango orchards declined significantly from 52% to 27% of the total area, indicating extensive conversion of productive agricultural land into urban land uses. Urban expansion exhibited a corridor-based and peri-urban growth pattern, primarily concentrated along major transportation routes and high-value orchard zones. Change detection analysis highlights a strong inverse relationship between urban growth and orchard loss, with evidence of a two-stage conversion process involving land clearance followed by construction.

The study concludes that Multan Tehsil has undergone a structural transition from an agriculture dominated landscape to an urban-oriented system. The findings provide critical spatial insights for sustainable urban planning, agricultural land protection, and informed land-use management in rapidly urbanizing regions of Pakistan.

Keywords:

LULC Changes; Urban Sprawl; Spatio-Temporal Dynamics; Remote Sensing and GIS; Multan