Regional Foreign Policy Alignment And The Changing Middle East Security Architecture: Lessons From The USA–Israel–Iran Conflict (2025–26)

Abstract

This research paper examines the evolving foreign policy alignments and security architecture of the Middle East in the context of the USA–Israel war with Iran (2025–26). The conflict represents a clear instance of unilateral military aggression, with the United States and Israel conducting pre-emptive strikes in violation of international law and the norms of state sovereignty. In contrast, Iran consistently pursued diplomatic engagement and complied with international obligations, demonstrating a commitment to rule-based behavior even under duress.

Applying Foreign Policy Analysis (FPA) frameworks, including neoclassical realism and two-level game theory, the study analyzes the responses of key regional actors including Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states, Israel, Iran, Turkey, and Egypt as well as external powers such as the United States, Russia, and China. The paper explores strategies such as alignment, hedging, neutrality, and coalition-building, showing how aggression by norm-violating actors disrupts regional stability, while law-abiding behavior reinforces legitimacy and diplomatic influence.

The findings suggest that U.S. and Israeli military actions destabilized the Middle East security architecture, forcing states to recalibrate alliances and security strategies. Meanwhile, Iran’s adherence to international norms strengthened its credibility and legitimacy, shaping regional perceptions and responses. This study contributes to FPA scholarship by providing an applied evaluation of foreign policy decision-making under crisis conditions and the role of normative compliance in shaping regional and global security outcomes.