Renewable Energy, Electricity Access, and Oil-Shock Resilience in Africa: Evidence of Complex Resilience Effects from the Iran War Shock

Abstract

This study examines the relationship between renewable-energy share, electricity access, and domestic oil-shock resilience in Africa using a monthly panel of 20 countries. Building on earlier evidence that the Iran war shock increased domestic fuel-price and inflation stress while higher renewable-energy shares reduced vulnerability, the analysis tests whether electricity access conditions the resilience effect of renewable energy. The results show that the Iran war shock significantly increased both fuel-price and inflation stress across the sample. Renewable-energy share and electricity access each display shock-buffering effects, although the electricity-access effect is stronger and more robust, especially in the inflation models. However, the findings do not support the expectation that electricity access strengthens the resilience effect of renewable-energy share. Instead, the interaction estimates indicate that the negative effect of renewable share weakens as electricity access rises. Conditional-effect analysis confirms that renewable share exerts its strongest protective effect at lower levels of access, with the effect fading at higher levels. The findings therefore suggest that renewable energy and electricity access function as complementary but non-reinforcing resilience channels. These patterns remain broadly consistent in the dynamic fixed-effects and system GMM robustness checks for the inflation equation.  The study contributes to the African energy-security literature by showing that the relationship between renewable penetration, access, and shock resilience is more complex than a simple amplification framework would suggest.

Keywords: Renewable energy; electricity access; oil-shock resilience; Africa; fuel-price stress; inflation stress; panel data; energy security