Revisiting the 1991 Water Accord: Climate Change and Interprovincial Water Conflicts in Pakistan

Abstract

This study critically examines how climate change has transformed water scarcity in Pakistan from a manageable resource challenge into a major non-traditional security threat that fundamentally destabilizes interprovincial relations and threatens national cohesion. Drawing on empirical hydrological data, policy analysis of the 1991 Water Apportionment Accord, and assessment of institutional performance within the Indus River System Authority, the research demonstrates that accelerated glacier melts in the Himalayas and Karakoram, erratic monsoon patterns, and prolonged drought episodes have rendered the Accord's fixed provincial allocations increasingly inadequate for managing distribution under conditions of heightened climatic variability. The findings reveal that downstream provinces, particularly Sindh, bear disproportionate socioeconomic consequences including agricultural decline, livelihood destruction, forced migration, and severe ecological degradation in the Indus Delta where seawater intrusion has increased salinity by approximately 70 percent since 1990. Persistent governance weaknesses, including inadequate transparency in water measurement and the absence of adaptive allocation mechanisms, exacerbate provincial mistrust and fuel political narratives that polarize upstream downstream relations. The study concludes that revisiting the Accord through a climate-sensitive lens, strengthening institutional capacity for real-time monitoring, and integrating flexible allocation protocols are essential for ensuring equitable water access, safeguarding agricultural sustainability, and preserving federal harmony in Pakistan's increasingly volatile environmental landscape. Without proactive reforms, water insecurity risks deepening political divisions and jeopardizing long-term national stability.

Keywords: water scarcity, 1991 Water Accord, climate change, interprovincial conflicts, Indus River System