Strategic Contestation in the Indian Ocean: US–China–India Rivalry and Its Implications for South Asian Security

Abstract

The Indian Ocean is the new centre of geopolitical competition and diplomatic tussle, where the United States, China and India are increasingly engaged in the battle for control at sea. Today, the region is a key economic gateway, accounting for almost 80 percent of the world's seaborne oil and about half of the world's container shipping, and it has become a strategic flashpoint. This paper will focus on the changing security architecture of South Asia as a result of the triangular relationship among Washington, Beijing, and New Delhi becoming dynamic. Within a structural realist framework, the study examines the strategic interests and tools of each great power, the process of militarisation as part of strategy, the dynamics of alliance formation, port diplomacy, technological competition, and the knock-on effects for regional security. The findings point to increasing security dilemmas in South Asia, high migratory pressures on smaller littoral states like the Maldives, Sri Lanka, and Bangladesh, and strategic friction between Pakistan’s and India's navies due to the increased intensity of naval deployments, infrastructure development, competition, and an exclusionary alliance structure. The paper proposes that the risks of escalation and the maintenance of regional security can be addressed through cooperative maritime governance, confidence-building measures, and multilateral security frameworks.

Keywords: Indian Ocean, Great Power Competition, South Asia, Maritime Security.