Forecasting Against Structural Reality: A Critical Assessment of Pakistan's Net Migration Trajectory and the UN DESA 2100 Projection

Abstract

According to the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA), Pakistan's net migration rate will go from minus 5.6 per 1,000 population in 2024 to minus 0.9 per 1,000 population by 2100. This study questions the possibility of achieving this projection in the context of Pakistan's structural situation. The study relied on the data of BEOE (2019-2025), Gallup Pakistan migration analysis (2025), data from Migrant Resource Centre (MRC, (2025), State Bank of Pakistan bilateral remittance records, and literature on brain drain, governance and political economy. The results reveal that all the structural indicators are now in negative alignment with the projection. As of mid-September 2025, 2.9 million Pakistanis had departed from their country since 2023. In August 2025, a Gallup Pakistan survey indicated that 66 percent of Pakistanis have an opinion on emigrants being more intelligent – the first time this has been recorded in Pakistan's history of migration. Expert emigration keeps on increasing. There is no measurable improvement in the quality of governance. The paper demonstrates through counterfactual scenario analysis that, given current conditions, Pakistan's current net migration rate is expected to be more likely to deteriorate to a range of −6.0 to −8.0 by 2050 rather than improve towards achieving the UN DESA target. This study concludes that none of the five structural changes that Pakistan needs to make in order to take the turn towards the projected trajectory is currently underway.

Keywords: Net Migration Rate, UN DESA Projection, Pakistan; Brain Drain, Push–Pull Theory, Political Economy, BEOE; Governance, Structural Conditions, Skilled Emigration