The Return to Protectionism and Pakistan's Trade Competitiveness: Evidence from the US–China Trade War
Abstract
This study examined the impact of the resurgence of global protectionism, particularly the US–China trade war, on Pakistan's trade competitiveness and export performance. A mixed-methods research design was adopted by combining quantitative analysis using the Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) index with qualitative content analysis of trade policies, institutional reports, and international trade data. The study analyzed Pakistan's export competitiveness before and after the escalation of the trade war to determine whether trade diversion created sustainable opportunities for the country. The findings revealed that the return to protectionism generated limited but identifiable export opportunities for Pakistan, particularly in textiles, apparel, cotton, leather products, and sports goods, where RCA values remained above one, indicating strong comparative advantage. However, the overall benefits remained modest because Pakistan failed to capitalize fully on global supply chain reconfiguration. The results further indicated that high energy costs, inadequate logistics, limited export diversification, weak technological capability, and low integration into global value chains constrained Pakistan's competitiveness. The study concluded that external trade opportunities alone were insufficient to enhance export performance without comprehensive domestic reforms. It was recommended that Pakistan diversify its export base, modernize industrial production, strengthen participation in regional and global value chains, improve trade facilitation, and implement technology-driven industrial policies. The findings contributed to the existing literature by applying the Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) model to evaluate Pakistan's trade competitiveness in an increasingly protectionist global trading environment.
Keywords: US–China Trade War, Protectionism, Trade competitiveness, Revealed Comparative Advantage, Trade Diversion, Global Value Chains (GVCs).
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.21399028
