Determinants of Wheat Yield under Different Irrigation Systems: Evidence from Daraban Kalan, Pakistan

Abstract

Wheat production relates to water availability, use of farm inputs, choice of seed varieties, and production arrangements. This paper compares wheat yields under three farming systems rain-fed, Kalla Pani (Rod Kohi), and tube-well irrigation during the 2024–2025 agricultural season, using survey data from 900 wheat farmers, with 300 farmers surveyed in each system in Daraban Kalan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan. The mean yield is calculated in bags per acre, and ordinary least squares (OLS) regression models are estimated separately for each system. The average production of kalla-pani farms is highest at 18.32 bags per acre followed by ‘tube-well farms' 12.69 bags per acre and rain fed farms 9.67 bags per acre. The regression analysis showed that water application, tillage cost, seed application, urea cost, and pesticide cost were all positively associated with wheat yield across the three systems. There was also a positive and statistically significant association between improved seed and yield in each system, while DAP cost was statistically significant at the 5% level in the Kalla Pani and tube-well systems, but not in the rain-fed system. Holding other variables constant, the estimated yields of lease and share cultivators were lower than those of owner cultivators across all three systems. The same was true for the improved seed quality, which produced higher yields than local seed. The data are cross-sectional, and the estimates will only show conditional associations rather than causal effects. These findings highlight the importance of appropriate water management practices, good seed quality, and the timely and effective use of farm inputs for wheat production.

Keywords: Wheat yield; irrigation systems; Rain fed; Rod Kohi; tube well farm inputs; improved seed; cultivation arrangements; Daraban Kalan, Pakistan

https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23672794