Water Scarcity and International Conflict: The Case of Indus Water Treaty

Abstract

One of the biggest continuous irrigation networks in the world is based on Indus system and approximately 270 million people in South Asia in Pakistan and northern India depend on it. This article analyses the changes in the erstwhile peaceful water-sharing arrangement under the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) that was signed in 1960 between Pakistan and India which may become a flashpoint for tensions between the two countries. This is because of decrease in glaciers mass, changes in monsoons and increasing demand. Due to considerations relating to geography, infrastructure, climate, and administration, Pakistan is more vulnerable to threats to its downstream and water security than India. especially in India decision of placing the indus water treaty in abeyance in April,2025. Which route poses the most geopolitical and hydrological risk to Pakistan? Given Pakistan's water shortage and reliance on the pact, the research goes on to suggest that, without the treaty, Pakistan is especially susceptible to the shifting hydrological and political climate because of its position as a downstream riparian state, which has put it at a disadvantage compared to India. The analysis is based on the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) hydrological assessment and the Indian government decision to suspend the Treaty in April 2025 and the growing hydrological and political power of India, which indicates that Pakistan is more vulnerable in water than India, and is experiencing water shortfall. The article fits into the larger scholarly debate about the "water wars” and concludes that there is little likelihood that the competition between countries over water will become a direct battle, but that water is becoming a more effective tool of coercive diplomacy and should not be considered as war. The end gives a fair and fair assessment of the challenges facing Pakistan and the policy shifts that are required to tackle these challenges.

Keywords: Indus Waters Treaty, Water Scarcity, Pakistan, India, Transboundary Water Conflict, Glacial Melt, Hydro-Politics.