A Comparative Analysis of Climate Variability in Mingora, District Swat: Decadal Weather Shifts and Urban Impact

Abstract

This is a qualitative study that examines decadal weather changes, memory of the environment and vulnerability to urban hydrometeorology in Mingora of District Swat. By synthesizing the stories of senior community elders, local business people and district administrative officials, the research reveals a compound climate transition with three interconnected environmental shifts: a lost winter baseline with the permanent upward shift of the snowfall line on the valley floor and a decreasing frost period, a transformed monsoonal regime with the disappearance of the traditional multi-day drizzle or 'rim-jhim' and an increasing number of high-intensity short-duration cloudbursts, and an escalating summer urban heat island effect as a result of increasing ambient temperatures and rapid concrete densification. The study identifies the interaction between these modified atmospheric conditions and anthropogenic vulnerabilities – namely high density commercial and residential development along natural stream channels (khwars) and uncontrolled solid waste accumulation at municipal culverts. This relationship leads to a chain reaction of severe snowfall to flooding events that transforms a cloudburst upstream into a sudden inundation in the urban area, resulting in extensive socio-economic impacts, loss of infrastructure and displacement of households, as seen during the flood events of 2010 and 2022. To shift District Swat from the reactive post-disaster relief to pre-emptive climate resilience, the paper proposes a multi-scalar framework of adaptation that involves robust implementation of the floodplain setbacks in the framework of the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa River Protection Act, the removal of unauthorised encroachments on the river, the introduction of community-based cloudburst early warning systems and the planned expansion of green infrastructure in the municipality of Mingora while desilting the existing municipal drainage.

Keywords: Decadal Weather Shifts, Mingora, Urban Flood Vulnerability, Stream Encroachments (Khwars), District Swat, Climate Adaptation.