The Indo-Pacific from Islamabad: South Asian Responses to Quad and AUKUS Strategic Architectures

Abstract

The organising principle of the present great power competition has become the Indo-Pacific, but it's not received equally across the region where two oceans meet. This article explores the analytical and institutional meaning and reaction to two of the most prominent institutional manifestations of the concept: the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) and the Australia–United Kingdom–United States partnership (AUKUS), specifically in South Asian states, with analytical priority given to Pakistan. The study employs a qualitative comparative design, which combines balance-of-threat theory, the hedging literature, and regional security complex theory to account for the variation in state responses. It makes three claims. The first is that Pakistan's response should be understood as a constrained hedging: a mixture of normative criticism of "bloc politics," strengthening ties with China and some re-engagement with Washington and the Gulf, and maritime confidence-building, influenced by the material imbalance in its relationship with India as well as by an army-centred foreign policy process. Secondly, India is also a co-builder and a passive member, hoping to gain capabilities and status through the Quad while remaining a strategically independent nation, and without the alliance obligations that AUKUS represents. Third, smaller South Asian countries take an “architecture agnostic” approach, focusing on development finance and sovereignty rather than alignment. The article concludes that South Asia views the Indo-Pacific through the prism of Indo-Pak rivalry and Sino-Indian competition and outlines the policy choices that Islamabad will have which will not be entrapment nor strategic isolation.

Keywords: Indo-Pacific, Quad, AUKUS, Pakistan, South Asia, hedging, Strategic Autonomy, China-Pakistan relations